In the past few days, as we watched hundreds of trucks carrying food and medicine roll into Gaza as the first phase of a US-led peace deal, it was too difficult to restrain oneself and avoid telling jubilant Gazans that the whole thing was a sham deal for optics. Despite the hostage exchange, deal-breaker points such as Hamas total disarmament, cleansing Palestinians of Gaza out of their homeland, and establishing an Israel-endorsed governing authority remain in contention.
And even if all these things were to get resolved, history attests that Israel will never accept any peace deal that makes space for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu and his ultra extremist government make no secret their genocidal vision to establish ‘greater Israel.’
The ongoing Gaza genocide has been hemorrhaging the collective conscience of humanity. As individuals, communities, institutions, and nations that adhere to international law and order, we are reduced to helplessly becoming captive spectators of the ongoing horrific mass slaughter and starvation of children.
After his fourth White House meeting in eight months, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump have held a joint press statement to present their old demand of establishing a “New Gaza” that entails total surrender, disarmament, and ethnic-cleansing, and no Palestinian state as a sustainable peace deal.
Apparently, the deal was intended to give the impression that the Palestinians were given one last chance for a peace deal before Trump had to let Netanyahu loose to execute what he defiantly told the world at the UN General Assembly: “finish the job.” And, the entire world knows well what that means.
Though Hamas accepted the deal that Trump described an “eternal peace in the Middle East,” it is dead-on-arrival. First, such peace deal could not materialize without a Palestinian state. Second, neither Netanyahu nor his ultra extremist government would accept such a deal as it would require Israel to stop the genocide and give back a portion of the land that it illegally annexed.
Gaza’s Future Is Palestine’s Future
The so-called New Gaza is the blueprint of a genocidally ambitious beachfront real estate project that Netanyahu, his Zionist predatory capitalists led by Jared Kushner—the former Trump senior advisor and son in law. His business partners include Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed. Last month, Netanyahu attended the groundbreaking ceremony.
Netanyahu and the newly formed “The Board of Peace,” with Trump as its chairman and the notorious former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair as its chief executioner, are confident that they have absolute impunity and that their exploitation will materialize by any means necessary. The Tony Blair Institute (TBI) is billionaire Larry Elison’s favorite think tank. Elison is one of the richest men in the world and one of Netanyahu’s closest friends. Elison handed TBI more than $340 million as ‘investment and pledge.’ He is also the number one donor to the IDF– Israeli Defense Forces- and the new majority shareholder of TikTok.
The Coming Middle East War
As most of the Middle East experts, international media, and geopolitical pundits anxiously or enthusiastically forecast the second tag-team attack on Iran, I doubted if Trump and his Israel-firster team are strategically that ill-advised. The great majority of their political base—MAGA—are against any war on Iran for Israel’s sake. Many of them also believe that their counter-establishment political stance is what got their most famed influencer, Charlie Kirk, martyred.
Today, U.S.’ unwavering support of Israel stands on a shaky ground. Rising waves of people are openly questioning on social media ‘why should the mightiest nation on earth adhere to Netanyahu’s diktats?’ Influential commentators and podcasters such as Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens who used to be defenders of the Zionist project are now openly pushing back against the manipulative narrative that kept them blindly loyal to Israel.
They are now questioning why U.S. must fight Israel’s wars, why must U.S. tax-payers fund Israeli citizens’ free healthcare and government subsidized colleges and universities while Americans are left in a brutal rat race where they must work hard for everything. Meanwhile, Trump is getting uncomfortable with the humiliation of being seen as Netanyahu’s pit-bull.
Against that backdrop, Israel is likely to shelve the Iran attack for now and directly focus on expediting their ‘Greater Israel’ vision. However, all roads lead to Turkiye. The Greater Israel would require the dismantlement of the New Syria government, the annexation of Gaza, West Bank, and East Jerusalem where Al-Aqsa Mosque is located. Israeli ministers and parliament members have been demanding that holy mosque’s immediate annexation so they could build ‘the Third Temple in its place.
Erdogan’s recent response was: “Let (Israel) continue to throw tantrums. We, as Muslims, will not take a single step back from our rights to East Jerusalem.” And this statement certainly resonates with the majority of almost 2 billion Muslims around the world. Israel is also getting too close for comfort in Cyprus. Some Israeli pundits and analysts are pushing toward ‘liberation of the Northern Cyprus.’ Israel has already deployed advanced anti-missile system in Cyprus. And, of course, marks a direct threat to the Turkish troops in the island and Turkiye’s national security.
So, Turkiye moved to cut off all trade ties with Israel that was worth $7 billion. Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this at the recently held special parliamentary session on Gaza: “we have totally cut our trade with Israel, we have closed off our ports to Israeli ships.” He made it clear that Turkiye will not allow container ships and airplanes carrying weapons and ammunition to Israel to enter Turkish ports and airspace.
The Cat Rat Game
Since 2021, the Turkish intelligence agency has been busting internal espionage rings and various Mossad networks who were operating inside Turkiye to spy on Turkish institutions, political figures, foreign diplomats, and Palestinians living in Turkey. In August, Mossad’s clandestine operation to abduct or kill a Palestinian cyber security expert who broke the code of Israel’s missile defense system was aborted by the Turkish intelligence- MIT. Yet, the Israeli provocation continues to increase.
Price of War
Preemptively invading Israel will not be an easy task, especially since Turkiye shares no border with the former. But, with Egypt’s military buildup in Sinai and the recent joint Turkish Egyptian naval exercise, that could change. Egypt is aware by virtue of being the only standing Arab military that could pose a threat to Israel, it is only a matter of time before Israel would attack.
In theory, risks of Turkiye invasion of Israel would likely include economic sanctions and expulsion from NATO. However, considering the heightened geopolitical volatility in the Middle East, the prolonged war in Russia and Ukraine, and the steady economic decline of Europe, Turkiye is desperately needed by all actors. And that certainly gives Turkiye a profound leverage. And, the Turkish trio—President Erdogan, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan, and Chief of the National Intelligence Organization Ibrahim Kalin—have proven mastery in using that leverage to their country’s advantage.
Turkiye has successfully been balancing its geopolitical strategies, policies, and tactical moves better than most of the first-tier countries. Whatever seems like a geopolitical cognitive dissonance is nothing more than a pragmatic chess move in a world that is growing more volatile by the hour.
Take Turkiye’s relationship with Russia and Ukraine as an example: on the one hand, Turkiye has greatly undermined Russia’s interest in Syria and has been arming Ukraine with its advanced drones. On the other hand, Turkiye has been maintaining strategic economic cooperation with Russia by defying the sanctions imposed by US, UK, and EU even though Turkiye is a NATO member. Yet all that did not diminish Turkiye’s credibility on the world stage. It is the only country that succeeded in bringing Russia and Ukraine and succeeded in persuading both sides to a peace deal, though that was sabotaged by UK/US shortly after.
That said, I would be remised if I didn’t underscore the importance of Turkiye reconciling with its political enemies and granting those who are not proven as hardcore criminals amnesty.
Strategic Prudence
Contrary to the common perception, I don’t expect this imminent clash between these two titans—Turkiye and Israel—to lead to a long devastating war. U.S. would likely allow Israel to get a bruised eye and suffer humiliation until Netanyahu screams ‘Uncle!’ Not only to restore Trump’s image as the ‘leader of the free world’ but U.S. cannot afford to lose Turkiye. This country hosts several U.S. military bases and it is the gatekeeper of two of the straits that lead to the strategic Black Sea. And it also has the second largest military force in NATO which makes Turkiye Europe’s strategic bulwark against Russia.
If that doesn’t mean much to the current administration, Turkiye is now a major economic partner as it signed a 20-year gas supply deal with the U.S.
How Important Is Erdogan to the U.S.?
Erdogan is important enough to directly challenge Trump’s Texas-size ego. His mid-air threat that he would not land his plane in Sharm el-Sheikh if Trump’s last-minute invitation to Netanyahu stood. Netanyahu was immediately disinvited.
Also, Trump’s molasses of flattery offered during Erdogan’s visit to the White House in front of the international media provides a clear answer. “He’s a highly respected man. He’s respected very much in his country and all throughout Europe and throughout the world where they know him,” said Trump. “It’s an honor to have him.” Remember in his first term, Trump imposed harsh economic sanctions intended to collapse Turkiye’s economy and pave the way for a regime change.
Like him or loathe him, this reality cannot be denied: President Erdogan is the most important world leader today. He is holding the winning geopolitical cards in the most volatile period in recent history. And the last thing that U.S. wants to do is to push Turkiye into the BRICS alliance and into the eager arms of China and Russia.